Business plan
Meridian Supply
E-commerce (DTC)
Prepared for investors
Prepared 2026-09-20 · 5-year model
Every figure in this document was computed by a deterministic model from the assumptions listed within it. The workbook exported alongside contains the same model as live formulas.
Key figures
| Year 1 revenue | $540,053 |
|---|---|
| Year 3 revenue | $1,716,065 |
| Operating profit from | Month 34 |
| Lowest cash balance | $303,628 · Month 57 |
01 Executive summary
Meridian Supply is an e-commerce (dtc) business. A direct-to-consumer brand selling a small range of workwear and field equipment, built on repeat purchase rather than on acquisition volume. Sold entirely through its own storefront, shipped from a single leased facility, with product developed in-house and manufactured under contract. Raising a first institutional round to fund inventory depth and a second product line.
The model projects revenue of $540,053 in the first year, reaching $1,716,065 by year three and $2,634,819 by year five. Gross margin runs at 61.8%, against an industry band of 35.0% to 65.0%.
The business turns an operating profit in month 34. The lowest cash balance across the plan is $303,628, in month 57.
Funding comprises $750,000 of equity and owner contribution and $0 of debt.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
02 Company description
Meridian Supply operates in e-commerce (dtc). A direct-to-consumer brand selling a small range of workwear and field equipment, built on repeat purchase rather than on acquisition volume. Sold entirely through its own storefront, shipped from a single leased facility, with product developed in-house and manufactured under contract. Raising a first institutional round to fund inventory depth and a second product line.
The plan begins in 2026-01 and runs for 5 years. The business trades from the first month of the plan.
The owner draws $84,000 a year. That figure is stated explicitly because a plan showing no owner compensation invites a lender to substitute a market salary and recompute the coverage ratios themselves.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
03 Products and services
Meridian Supply earns from online orders, modelled as units sold at a price, each carrying a unit cost.
The model assumes 420 units in the first month at $68 each, against a unit cost of $26.
Direct costs run at 38.2% of revenue, leaving a gross margin of 61.8%. The industry median is 50.0%.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
04 Market analysis
The market section is built from the drivers in the financial model rather than from a published market-size figure. That is deliberate: a share-of-a-large-market claim is the most common reason a market section is dismissed.
The build starts from 2,400,000 us households buying technical workwear annually, of whom 22.0% are plausible buyers spending $210 a year. That gives a total addressable market of $110,880,000, of which $9,979,200 is serviceable and $1,716,422 is realistically obtainable inside the plan horizon.
The model assumes 420 units in the first month at $68 each, against a unit cost of $26.
At the modelled volumes, the business needs $148,881 of revenue a month to cover its fixed costs. Whether that level of demand exists in the catchment is the question this section has to answer, and it is the assumption most worth testing before committing capital.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
05 Competitive landscape
A competitive analysis is only persuasive when it names real competitors with observed prices and dates. Those have not yet been gathered for this plan, and this section should not pretend otherwise.
What the model does establish is the price point the business has to defend: $68. Any competitor operating below that price, or offering materially more at the same price, is a direct threat to the volumes assumed here.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
06 Marketing and sales
Marketing runs at 22.0% of revenue in the model. No per-customer acquisition cost has been established yet, which makes the marketing line the least tested assumption in the plan.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
07 Operations
Operations are modelled through the cost base rather than described separately. Operating expenses total $492,792 in year one, rising to $1,128,139 by year three.
Working capital assumes customers pay after 2 days and suppliers are paid after 30 days. Stock turns every 62 days.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
08 Team and management
The business is led by its owner, who takes $84,000 a year from month 1.
Alongside the owner, the plan carries 2 operations at $58,000 each. Payroll is loaded at 19.7% above gross wages to cover employer taxes and benefits.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
09 Applicable regulations
Regulatory obligations for e-commerce (dtc) vary by jurisdiction, and this section should be completed against the requirements of the specific city and state in which the business will operate.
Licences, inspections and insurance requirements should be confirmed with the relevant authority before the plan is submitted. A plan that asserts a specific requirement incorrectly is worse than one that states the obligation will be confirmed.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
10 Risks and mitigations
The plan reaches operating profit in month 34, and the cash trough of $303,628 in month 57 is the point of greatest exposure.
The assumption most worth challenging is the revenue ramp. A shortfall there moves the revenue line directly, and the cost base is largely fixed in the first year, so the effect falls straight to cash.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
11 AI disruption resilience
Lenders began asking small-business borrowers in 2026 how artificial intelligence might reshape their industry over the life of a long loan, and have declined applications where the business looked straightforwardly automatable. This section exists to answer that question rather than avoid it.
Assessed task by task and weighted by what each part costs to run, exposure stands at 64.6% across 63.0% of the cost base — high exposure. The weighting matters: a handful of automatable tasks that cost almost nothing is a different business from one automatable task carrying most of the overhead.
The parts most open to it are warehousing and fulfilment; photography, copy and merchandising; customer service and returns handling. Automation here is capital-intensive rather than software-driven, and is available to competitors on the same terms.
What is genuinely hard to automate here: The defensible asset is a repeat customer who trusts the fit, which took three years of returns data to earn and cannot be generated. The exposed cost lines are the ones where automation makes the business cheaper to run.
The response is planned rather than hoped for: automate first-line customer service, keeping returns judgement with a person., to holds service cost per order flat while order volume doubles.; bring fit and returns data into product development as a structured input., to reduces the returns rate, which is the single largest lever on contribution..
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
12 Financial plan
Revenue is built from drivers rather than from a growth rate. The model assumes 420 units in the first month at $68 each, against a unit cost of $26.
The result is $540,053 in year one and $2,634,819 by year five, with EBITDA moving from -$159,229 to -$55,155 over the same period.
The balance sheet ties in all 60 periods of the model. Cash reaches its low point of $303,628 in month 57, and does not go negative at any point.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
13 Suggested next steps
Three things determine whether this plan survives contact with a reader. First, the market section needs real evidence: named competitors, observed prices, and a bottom-up demand estimate for the specific catchment.
Second, the assumptions currently carried as industry defaults should be replaced with measured figures wherever that is possible. The plan records which is which, and a reader will notice.
Third, the cash trough of $303,628 in month 57 should be stress-tested against a slower start than the one modelled.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
Market size, built from the ground up
Each line is derived from the one above it, so a reader can disagree with one number rather than with the conclusion.
| US households buying technical workwear annually | 2,400,000 |
|---|---|
| Of whom are plausible buyers 22% of 2,400,000 | 528,000 |
| Spend each per year | $210 |
| Total addressable market 528,000 × spend | $110,880,000 |
| Serviceable, given where and how we sell 9% of the total | $9,979,200 |
| Obtainable inside the plan horizon 17.2% of serviceable | $1,716,422 |
Financial statements
5 years, computed from the drivers listed in the plan. The balance sheet carries its own tie row.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online orders | $540,053 | $1,066,812 | $1,716,065 | $2,271,013 | $2,634,819 |
| Revenue | $540,053 | $1,066,812 | $1,716,065 | $2,271,013 | $2,634,819 |
| Cost of sales | ($206,491) | ($407,899) | ($656,143) | ($868,329) | ($1,007,431) |
| Gross profit | $333,562 | $658,913 | $1,059,923 | $1,402,685 | $1,627,388 |
| Salaries | ($216,168) | ($250,866) | ($320,263) | ($389,660) | ($459,057) |
| Marketing | ($118,812) | ($234,699) | ($377,534) | ($499,623) | ($579,660) |
| Other | ($97,210) | ($192,026) | ($308,892) | ($408,782) | ($474,267) |
| Software | ($27,003) | ($53,341) | ($85,803) | ($113,551) | ($131,741) |
| Rent | ($33,600) | ($34,608) | ($35,646) | ($36,716) | ($37,817) |
| Operating expenses | ($492,792) | ($765,539) | ($1,128,139) | ($1,448,332) | ($1,682,543) |
| of which owner compensation Shown separately because a lender recomputes coverage without it. | $100,506 | $100,506 | $100,506 | $100,506 | $100,506 |
| EBITDA | ($159,229) | ($106,626) | ($68,216) | ($45,647) | ($55,155) |
| Depreciation | ($6,400) | ($6,400) | ($6,400) | ($6,400) | ($6,400) |
| Operating profit | ($165,629) | ($113,026) | ($74,616) | ($52,047) | ($61,555) |
| Interest | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Profit before tax | ($165,629) | ($113,026) | ($74,616) | ($52,047) | ($61,555) |
| Tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income | ($165,629) | ($113,026) | ($74,616) | ($52,047) | ($61,555) |
Cash flow
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | ($165,629) | ($113,026) | ($74,616) | ($52,047) | ($61,555) |
| Depreciation added back | $6,400 | $6,400 | $6,400 | $6,400 | $6,400 |
| Change in receivables | ($5,204) | ($4,393) | ($4,643) | ($3,442) | ($2,104) |
| Change in inventory | ($61,684) | ($52,066) | ($55,032) | ($40,794) | ($24,939) |
| Change in payables | $87,390 | $60,626 | $63,754 | $48,758 | $32,060 |
| Change in deferred revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating cash flow | ($138,728) | ($102,458) | ($64,138) | ($41,125) | ($50,138) |
| Capital expenditure | ($32,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Investing cash flow | ($32,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Equity raised | $750,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Grants received | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt drawn | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt repaid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Financing cash flow | $750,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net change in cash | $579,272 | ($102,458) | ($64,138) | ($41,125) | ($50,138) |
| Closing cash | $579,272 | $476,814 | $412,676 | $371,551 | $321,414 |
Balance sheet
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $579,272 | $476,814 | $412,676 | $371,551 | $321,414 |
| Accounts receivable | $5,204 | $9,597 | $14,240 | $17,681 | $19,785 |
| Inventory | $61,684 | $113,750 | $168,783 | $209,577 | $234,515 |
| Property and equipment, net | $25,600 | $19,200 | $12,800 | $6,400 | $0 |
| Total assets | $671,761 | $619,361 | $608,498 | $605,209 | $575,714 |
| Accounts payable | $87,390 | $148,016 | $211,770 | $260,528 | $292,588 |
| Deferred revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total liabilities | $87,390 | $148,016 | $211,770 | $260,528 | $292,588 |
| Paid-in capital | $750,000 | $750,000 | $750,000 | $750,000 | $750,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($165,629) | ($278,656) | ($353,272) | ($405,319) | ($466,873) |
| Total equity | $584,371 | $471,344 | $396,728 | $344,681 | $283,127 |
| Assets less liabilities and equity Zero in every period, or the model is wrong. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
AI disruption resilience
Assessed task by task and weighted by what each part costs to run, exposure stands at 64.6% across 63.0% of the cost base — high exposure.
What is genuinely hard to automate here: The defensible asset is a repeat customer who trusts the fit, which took three years of returns data to earn and cannot be generated. The exposed cost lines are the ones where automation makes the business cheaper to run.
| Task | Share of cost | Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Warehousing and fulfilment Automation here is capital-intensive rather than software-driven, and is available to competitors on the same terms. | 28.0% | moderate |
| Photography, copy and merchandising Already substantially automatable. Expected to fall in cost and to become a smaller point of differentiation. | 14.0% | high |
| Customer service and returns handling High volume, repetitive, and well served by current tooling. The judgement cases are a small share of contacts. | 9.0% | high |
Sources
No outside sources were relied on in this plan.
Methodology
Every figure in the statements was computed by a deterministic model from the assumptions in this document. No figure was written by a language model; the narrative describes arithmetic it did not perform. The narrative in this document was composed directly from the model.
Industry context is drawn from DTC operator benchmarks, 2026 for E-commerce (DTC). Benchmarks are shown for comparison and never substituted for the figures in this plan.
Regulatory values used
| Value | Used | Source | In force from | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service coverage threshold (SBA 7(a) Small Loan) | 1.10× | SBA Notice 5000-875701 | 2026-03-01 | secondary |
| 7(a) Small Loan ceiling | $500,000 | SBA SOP 50 10 8 | 2025-06-01 | unverified |
| Minimum equity injection | 10.0% | SBA SOP 50 10 8 | 2025-06-01 | secondary |
Configuration last reviewed 2026-09-19.
Still to be confirmed against a primary source
Listed rather than omitted. A plan that marks its own unverified inputs is worth more than one that presents everything with equal confidence.
- SBA SOP DSCR thresholds and the 2026-10-01 SOP 50 10 8.1 change
- SBA guaranty fee schedule (fiscal-year dependent)
- 7(a) Small Loan ceiling, which selects the DSCR threshold
- Section 179 limit and bonus depreciation percentage for 2026
- FICA wage base for 2026
- EB-5 thresholds and the 2027-01-01 inflation adjustment
- Matter of Ho element list, against the original decision
- 9 FAM 402.9 subsection lettering (sources conflict; no pin cites until resolved)